Abstract: The emergence and persistence of large trade imbalances as well as the volatility of financial flows among countries have been attributed, at least in part, to the inadequacy of the current international monetary system after the breakdown of Bretton Woods. From a different perspective, the current eurozone crisis is also the result, in our view, of a flawed institutional setting. These problems call for reforms to mitigate or avoid the recessionary bias that is the outcome of current systems, as Keynes predicted in the discussion preceding the Bretton Woods agreements. In this paper we briefly review the evidence on international imbalances, and survey the rapidly growing literature on the subject. We introduce a set of models based on the stock-flow-consistent approach pioneered by Godley (1999) and Lavoie and Godley (2003). We discuss how to use these models to explore potential reform of the international monetary system.
The first version of this paper dates back to 2011… but it has been written to provide a benchmark model so that other researchers could expand on it, so it should not become obsolete too quickly!
The European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies: Intervention has just published a special issue dedicated to Post-Keynesian stock-flow consistent modeling.
Introduction by Antoine Godin, papers:
Huub Meijers, Joan Muysken and Olaf Sleijpen
– The deposit financing gap: another Dutch disease
Saed Khalil and Stephen Kinsella
– Bad banks choking good banks: simulating balance sheet contagion
Eugenio Caverzasi and Antoine Godin
– Financialisation and the sub-prime crisis: a stock-flow consistent model
Jacques Mazier and Sebastian Valdecantos
– A multi-speed Europe: is it viable? A stock-flow consistent approach
Biagio Ciuffo and Eckehard Rosenbaum
– Comparative numerical analysis of two stock-flow consistent post-Keynesian growth models
DOI: 10.2753/PKE0160-3477340407 Abstract:
This paper develops a stock-flow consistent model that explicitly integrates the role of liquidity preference and perceived uncertainty into the decision-making process of households, firms, and commercial banks. Emphasis is placed on (1) the link between the precautionary motive and the asset choice of the private sector, (2) the effect of perceived uncertainty on the desired margins of safety and borrowing, and (3) the impact of financial obligations on the liquidity preference of households and firms. Performing a simulation experiment, the paper illuminates the channels through which a rise in perceived uncertainty is likely to set off a recessionary process. Keywords: liquidity preference, perceived uncertainty, recessionary process, stock-flow consistent modeling